4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(5:08) 10-D.Carlson 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Adomitis, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.00 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.45 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 44, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model