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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 7 at the 50

New Orleans Saints 17 – Atlanta Falcons 45

What Actually Happened

(3:02) (Shotgun) 6-T.Shough pass deep left to 12-C.Olave to ATL 27 for 23 yards (33-B.Bowman) [52-S.Ebukam].

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.41 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 50, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.59 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 14, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model