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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 16 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(:49) 17-R.Wright punts 39 yards to ATL 8, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.52 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 47, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.15 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.01 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 13, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model