Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 14 at the 62

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

(3:04) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to NO 18, Center-49-L.McCullough. 19-B.Brown to NO 20 for 2 yards (89-C.Woerner; 53-K.Daniels).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 62, worth -3.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model