4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 7 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 16-J.Bailey punts 28 yards to NO 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 19-B.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.95 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 41, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.09 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model