Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 67

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 21

(8:00) 17-R.Wright punts 53 yards to ATL 14, Center-46-C.Adomitis, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.23 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 67, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model