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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 48

Detroit Lions 19 – Carolina Panthers 29

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.03 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model