Win Probability
Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- Jared Goff (DET): +0.193 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- CAR defense: +0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- DET offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →
Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 4
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 12:09 FG DET (12:09) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 3 – CAR 0
- Q1 01:56 TD CAR (1:56) 30-C.Hubbard left tackle for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 3 – CAR 6
- Q2 12:41 FG DET (12:41) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 6 – CAR 7
- Q2 08:14 TD CAR (8:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 4-T.McMillan for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN [98-D.Wonnum]. DET 6 – CAR 13
- Q2 02:18 TD DET (2:18) 79-L.Borom and 50-S.Gill-Howard reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – CAR 13
- Q2 00:32 FG CAR (:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 13 – CAR 16
- Q2 00:05 FG DET (:05) 39-J.Bates 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 16 – CAR 16
- Q3 09:37 TD CAR (9:37) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 4-T.McMillan for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 16 – CAR 22
- Q3 06:24 FG DET (6:24) 39-J.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. DET 19 – CAR 22
- Q3 02:52 TD CAR (2:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 19 – CAR 28
- Q4 09:03 FG CAR (9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 19 – CAR 32
- Q4 03:42 TD DET (3:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 25 – CAR 32
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 DET 4th & 12 at the 36Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 71%
(12:09) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 CAR 4th & 12 at the 55Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(7:49) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DET 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(5:59) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. PENALTY on CAR-38-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 38. Penalty on CAR-27-I.Simmons, Offensive Holding, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37% p(FG) 88%
(12:41) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 42Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 56%
(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 83%
(:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 DET 4th & 6 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%
(6:24) 39-J.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 19 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25% p(FG) 41%
(14:49) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to CAR 14, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 37Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 68%
(11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to DET 28 for 9 yards (27-J.Mills).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 10 at the 14Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 20 at the 25Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EPp(convert) 22% p(FG) 88%
(7:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 21 for 4 yards. Lateral to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 12 for 9 yards (55-D.Lloyd).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(6:14) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DET 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. Penalty on DET-53-T.Nowaske, Running Into the Kicker, declined.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 10 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 97%
(4:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 3 for 7 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 20-Z.Wheatley).
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CAR 4th & 11 at the 51 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 34%
(2:12) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 DET 4th & 13 at the 90 late-gameChose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.93 EPp(convert) 35%
(1:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).
See the full breakdown →
