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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 20 at the 25

Detroit Lions 19 – Carolina Panthers 32

What Actually Happened

(7:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to CAR 21 for 4 yards. Lateral to 0-J.Gibbs to CAR 12 for 9 yards (55-D.Lloyd).

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.76 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.81 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.88 EP