Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 90

Detroit Lions 26 – Carolina Panthers 32

(1:29) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 18-I.TeSlaa to DET 22 for 12 yards (22-L.Ransom; 24-W.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

What Happened

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.90 EP
65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.93 EP