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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 25

Detroit Lions 3 – Carolina Panthers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 39-J.Bates 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.52 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.74 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -1.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model