Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 85

Detroit Lions 3 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 3-J.Fox punts 47 yards to CAR 38, Center-49-H.Hatten, out of bounds. PENALTY on CAR-38-R.Rochell, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 38. Penalty on CAR-27-I.Simmons, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.78 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth -0.17 EP
53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model