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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 51

Carolina Panthers 32 – Detroit Lions 26

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to DET 13, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +1.04 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -2.42 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.99 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model