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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 13 – Detroit Lions 13

What Actually Happened

(:32) 10-R.Fitzgerald 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.25 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model