Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 85

Carolina Panthers 32 – Detroit Lions 19

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to DET 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy. Penalty on DET-53-T.Nowaske, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.40 EP
56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -4.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model