4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 8

Detroit Lions 16 – Carolina Panthers 22

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 39-J.Bates 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.22 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP