Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 55

Carolina Panthers 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(7:49) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to DET 11, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

The Three Options

GO -0.59 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.33 EP
68% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -2.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model