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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 29 – Detroit Lions 19

What Actually Happened

(11:14) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 88-D.Waller to DET 28 for 9 yards (27-J.Mills).

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.59 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model