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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 14

Carolina Panthers 29 – Detroit Lions 19

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 10-R.Fitzgerald 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 14, worth -0.60 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 24, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model