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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 36

Detroit Lions 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.31 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -2.51 EP
KICK -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +0.88 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -3.17 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model