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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 42

Carolina Panthers 7 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(8:52) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short middle to 13-J.Metchie to DET 32 for 10 yards (36-C.Clark).

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.78 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.00 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model