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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 10

Detroit Lions 19 – Carolina Panthers 32

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 87-S.LaPorta to CAR 3 for 7 yards (55-D.Lloyd; 20-Z.Wheatley).

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.63 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 10, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model