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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 48

Minnesota Vikings 6 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 20 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-A.DePaola, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 48, worth -2.50 EP
KICK -0.66 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model