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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 24

What Actually Happened

(:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +1.30 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.81 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model