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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

2-2 HC Mike McCarthy
@
CLE Home

Cleveland Browns

3-1 HC Todd Monken
Thursday 2026-10-01 · 20:15 ET Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland US ☀️ Clear Spread -2.5 O/U 38.5

Win Probability

PIT
54.4%
CLE
45.6%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: coin flip Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.246 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • CLE defense: -0.107 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.062 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Deshaun Watson (CLE) -0.130 vs Aaron Rodgers (PIT) -0.108 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

PIT 23 16–30
–
CLE 20 13–27
Projected margin: PIT by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

PIT

Rico Dowdle RB Out Toe
Joey Porter Jr. CB Out Not injury related - other
Jalen Ramsey CB Questionable Wrist
Yahya Black DT Questionable Not injury related - personal matter

CLE

Elgton Jenkins C Out Concussion
Tylan Wallace WR Out Knee
Teven Jenkins G Out Back

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 24
–
CLE 27

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:03 TD PIT (3:03) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 14-R.Wilson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – CLE 0
  • Q2 12:22 TD CLE (12:22) (Shotgun) 38-J.McLaughlin right end for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – CLE 6
  • Q2 08:33 TD CLE (8:33) 70-Z.Zinter reported in as eligible. 10-Q.Judkins right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 7 – CLE 13
  • Q2 01:25 TD CLE (1:25) (Shotgun) 4-D.Watson pass short right to 44-H.Fannin for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on PIT-90-T.Watt, Defensive Offside, declined. PIT 7 – CLE 20
  • Q2 00:12 FG PIT (:12) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston. PIT 10 – CLE 21
  • Q4 10:16 TD PIT (10:16) (Shotgun) 8-A.Rodgers pass deep middle to 80-D.Washington for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 16 – CLE 21
  • Q4 06:42 FG CLE (6:42) 25-A.Szmyt 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. PIT 16 – CLE 24
  • Q4 01:46 TD PIT (1:46) 8-A.Rodgers pass short right to 88-P.Freiermuth for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 22 – CLE 24
  • Q4 00:15 FG CLE (:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez. PIT 24 – CLE 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 1 at the 75
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to PIT 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 22 for 15 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CLE 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 46%

    (1:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to PIT 1, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-24-D.Thomas.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (10:46) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 78%

    (5:26) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 PIT 4th & 10 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (:12) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 10 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (13:34) 19-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 22 for 14 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CLE 8.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CLE 4th & 13 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (10:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to PIT 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 43 for 15 yards (24-D.Thomas; 31-D.McMillon).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (8:50) 19-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 16 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 85%

    (6:42) 25-A.Szmyt 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (5:40) 19-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 81 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 38 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 60%

    (:15) 25-A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

    See the full breakdown →