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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 43

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 42 yards to PIT 1, impetus ends at PIT 1, Center-50-R.Sunahara, downed by CLE-24-D.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.79 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.49 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model