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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 26

Cleveland Browns 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 25-A.Szmyt 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.32 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.45 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.68 EP