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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 13

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(:12) 9-C.Boswell 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +5.23 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.00 EP
KICK +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model