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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 19-C.Johnston punts 62 yards to CLE 1, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-26-B.Echols.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.98 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 63, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model