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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 68 yards to PIT 7, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen pushed ob at PIT 22 for 15 yards (86-B.Whiteheart).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +1.63 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.21 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP