Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 13 at the 88

Cleveland Browns 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(10:21) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 60 yards to PIT 28, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 10-K.Wetjen to PIT 43 for 15 yards (24-D.Thomas; 31-D.McMillon).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.16 EP
70% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model