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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 19-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to CLE 6, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion pushed ob at CLE 16 for 10 yards (41-P.Wilson).

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.95 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model