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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 81

Cleveland Browns 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 81 yards to end zone, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.87 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model