Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 65

Pittsburgh Steelers 10 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 19-C.Johnston punts 57 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 1-K.Concepcion to CLE 22 for 14 yards (41-P.Wilson). PENALTY on CLE-26-M.Harden, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at CLE 8.

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.35 EP
67% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 65, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model