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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 19-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to CLE 26, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 1-K.Concepcion.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.47 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model