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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(5:26) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-19-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.40 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model