4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 14 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to LA 7, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 53, worth -2.77 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model