Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- PHI offense: +0.006 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
- PHI defense: -0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- Matthew Stafford (LA): +0.200 EPA/dropback in prior starts
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 4
LA
PHI
Pulled fresh for 2026 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 08:42 FG PHI (8:42) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. LA 0 – PHI 3
- Q1 02:12 FG LA (2:12) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans. LA 3 – PHI 3
- Q2 11:02 FG PHI (11:02) 4-J.Elliott 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann. LA 3 – PHI 6
- Q2 05:51 TD PHI (5:51) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep right to 80-D.Cooper for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 3 – PHI 12
- Q2 02:00 TD LA (2:00) 12-P.Nacua left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 9 – PHI 13
- Q2 00:09 TD PHI (:09) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short middle to 80-D.Cooper for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LA-22-T.McDuffie, Illegal Contact, declined. LA 10 – PHI 19
- Q4 04:02 TD LA (4:02) 23-K.Williams left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LA 16 – PHI 20
- Q4 01:17 TD LA (1:17) 23-K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LA 23 – PHI 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(13:25) 10-B.Mann punts 57 yards to LA 14, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 15 for 1 yard (7-K.Ringo).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 PHI 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%
(8:42) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 LA 4th & 12 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%
(2:12) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 2 at the 47Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 60% p(FG) 37%
(14:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to LA 34 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 65Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EPp(convert) 64%
(8:49) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 16 yards (36-M.Pulley; 53-N.Landman).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 14 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 24%
(7:08) 10-B.Mann punts 46 yards to LA 7, Center-41-R.Underwood, downed by PHI-7-K.Ringo.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 LA 4th & 10 at the 93Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(6:42) 42-E.Evans punts 51 yards to PHI 42, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey pushed ob at LA 17 for 41 yards (48-O.Speights).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 PHI 4th & 15 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(1:08) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 21, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 5 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EPp(convert) 48%
(13:20) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 82Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(11:58) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 40 for 3 yards (80-D.Cooper).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 1 at the 51Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 73% p(FG) 28%
(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to PHI 47 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 LA 4th & 7 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 81%
(7:20) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.
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Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 46%
(6:32) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 23 yards (42-S.Mondon). PENALTY on LA-88-J.Whittington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.
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Q3 LA 4th & 18 at the 76Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(3:21) 42-E.Evans punts 49 yards to PHI 27, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 2 yards (33-D.Connors; 36-M.Pulley).
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Q3 PHI 4th & 1 at the 62Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 72%
(1:07) 61-W.Lampkin reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 38 for no gain (53-N.Landman).
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Q4 LA 4th & 8 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 66%
(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 2 at the 2Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 55% p(FG) 99%
(7:31) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short left to 80-D.Cooper.
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Q4 PHI 4th & 9 at the 59 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(3:07) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 21 for 11 yards (7-K.Ringo; 42-S.Mondon).
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