4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 2 at the 47

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Los Angeles Rams 3

What Actually Happened

(14:53) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 9-M.Lemon to LA 34 for 13 yards (5-K.Kinchens).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.13 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 13, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model