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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 62

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:07) 61-W.Lampkin reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 38 for no gain (53-N.Landman).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +2.09 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 62, worth -3.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model