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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 15 at the 70

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(1:08) 10-B.Mann punts 49 yards to LA 21, Center-41-R.Underwood, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.02 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 70, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 28, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model