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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(7:20) 92-H.Mevis 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.53 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 39, worth -2.13 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model