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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 57

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(6:32) 10-B.Mann punts 47 yards to LA 10, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 33 for 23 yards (42-S.Mondon). PENALTY on LA-88-J.Whittington, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 25.

The Three Options

GO -0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 57, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model