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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 82

Philadelphia Eagles 20 – Los Angeles Rams 10

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 10-B.Mann punts 45 yards to LA 37, Center-41-R.Underwood. 11-A.Bachman to LA 40 for 3 yards (80-D.Cooper).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.07 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 40, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model