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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 60

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 42-E.Evans punts 47 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 85-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.33 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP