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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 8 at the 36
Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20
What Actually Happened
(14:16) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass incomplete short right to 89-T.Higbee.
The Three Options
GO
+0.38 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.18 EP
- 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
KICK
+0.17 EP
- 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
- 34% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
PUNT
-0.13 EP
- Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
