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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 4-J.Elliott 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-R.Underwood, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.99 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 22, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT +0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP