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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 65

Los Angeles Rams 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 42-E.Evans punts 52 yards to PHI 13, Center-49-J.Cardona. 85-B.Covey to PHI 29 for 16 yards (36-M.Pulley; 53-N.Landman).

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP