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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 51

Los Angeles Rams 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 20

What Actually Happened

(10:40) (Shotgun) 9-M.Stafford pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to PHI 47 for 4 yards (11-J.Campbell).

The Three Options

GO +1.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.75 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 51, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.65 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model