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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 12 at the 22

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:12) 92-H.Mevis 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-42-E.Evans.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.22 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model